Ethiopia Mid-Harvest Update 2022

Published 8 February 2022

Harvest is well underway in Ethiopia, and over the past few weeks we’ve been in close contact with our exporting partners to learn more about current conditions on the ground, and what to expect from the purchasing season. Read on for a brief update on this year’s crop, and for more information on the availability, pricing and timing for our favourite Ethiopian coffees.

Our team has been following the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia since it first escalated at the end of 2020. The situation is extremely complex, and as outsiders we lack much of the context or experience to understand it, but things have seemingly begun to settle in the last few months. Government forces have secured several key towns and roads, and all major military conflicts have been contained to the country’s north since early December. This turn of events made traveling through coffee-growing regions (largely located in Ethiopia’s southwest) safer, and kickstarted coffee trading activities. 

Early signs for the harvest point to an increase in both yield and quality, particularly in the country’s west, where optimal weather contributed to good growing conditions. However, the increase in volume won’t necessarily lead to lower prices. This year’s volatility of the international price of green coffee (in relation to C market pricing), coupled with the financial restraints caused by the country’s civil war, have influenced the coffee trade early in the season and have made it difficult to predict just how high prices will increase. 

Because Ethiopian regulations do not allow foreigners to purchase cherries directly from the producer, the market is driven by the funds available to local traders: exporters who buy cherry directly from farmers and process them at privately or community-owned washing stations, or ‘middlemen’ who purchase dried cherry pods to sell to the ECX. In response to the rising C price, the Ethiopian government set minimum cherry prices high at the beginning of the season, and intense competition amongst traders pushed farmgate pricing to almost double where it was at the same time last year. 

The cost of the civil war created huge liquidity issues with banks, forcing local traders to be more conservative with their purchasing in such an inflated market. While this circumstance was initially predicted to cause prices to eventually fall – making many exporters reluctant to provide pricing estimates – the crash never occurred. Many traders chose to travel to the country’s coffee-growing regions and source cherry directly from farmers, an approach which not only gave them a competitive edge, but also resulted in greater amounts of capital being poured into producing regions. 

In response, cherry prices have continued to rise. Our suppliers are currently reporting an increase of some 30% in FOB pricing (for prepared green coffee), and we are still waiting to confirm how much ongoing shipping challenges will affect final costs or timing of the coffees. In short, we expect this year’s coffees to be more expensive than last year’s, but we are still waiting to learn by exactly how much! As always, we’ll keep our customers informed and up to date as the season progresses. 

The good news is, with high quality and yields across the board, we are expecting some great coffees to come out of this year’s season! Lovers of natural-processed coffees will be particularly happy, as much of the cherry that was harvested at the beginning of the season, when less buyers were on the road, was naturally processed on the farms and sold to the ECX as dried ‘pods’ – the result being more natural-processed coffees on the market than in previous years. While this also means that we might see less washed coffees this year, we are confident that we can find clean, elegant, and long-lasting natural lots that will excel as both filter and espresso offerings, as an alternative.

Offer samples are hitting the table over the next few weeks, and we can’t wait to get tasting! We have briefed in our supplier partners at origin and requested to see samples from the same exporters and coffee washing stations we have worked with over multiple years; including year-on-year favourites like Mormora, Moredocofe; and Jigesa, Aroresa, Hadeso and Werka (all from exporter, Testi Specialty Coffee). We are also planning to cup through several Grade 2 natural and washed processed lots, as potential blending options for our roasting partners.

As we head into the cupping room, we’re keen to hear from you to help us build our buying brief and accurately plan for the upcoming season! Communicating your requirements ahead of purchasing helps us to accurately gauge demand and is the best way to secure the coffees you love every year. Let us know now if you are looking for a coffee lot that meets a specific flavour profile, price point and volume, or from a producer or washing station whose coffees you have previously featured. We’ll cup with your requests in mind, and do our best to secure you the coffees that you love! The coffees we select now will land between June and August 2022.

You can read more about our Ethiopian sourcing program here, or simply call or email our team to chat further.